JAMES PIERESON: Kamala Harris’s Michael Dukakis moment.
She and her running mate may come out of the convention even with, or perhaps even slightly ahead of, the Trump-Vance ticket.
The honeymoon will not last very long. Trump will succeed in painting Harris as an out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, much as Bush portrayed Dukakis as a Massachusetts liberal. Trump will find plenty of running room with that campaign, as there is hardly a left-wing cause that she has not embraced.
She was supposed to be in charge of the southern border but has done nothing for four years as millions of migrants flowed into the United States from just about every country in the world. She favored the Black Lives Matter campaign a few years ago (before it was revealed to be a fraud), raised money to bail out rioters and looters in Minnesota, and refused to condemn proponents of “defunding the police.” She was once a prosecutor, but very much of the kind favored by George Soros—that is, a pro-crime prosecutor. She supports the Green New Deal, with its array of taxes and subsidies designed to eliminate fossil fuels, gas-powered cars, and much else besides, including air conditioning and gas stoves. She favors cancellation of student debts, ruled unconstitutional by the federal courts. She is equivocal in support of Israel: she has supported a ceasefire in the current war, an approach favored by critics of Israel, and has criticized the Jewish state for not doing enough to ease the “humanitarian crisis” in Gaza.
In general, she views the United States and the world much as “the Squad” in Congress does—that is, from a left-wing point of view. She and her fervent supporters are out of touch with the views of most voters. As a result, middle-of-the-road voters, independents, and many Hispanics will desert Harris’s campaign. In addition, based upon her record, she is not even an especially effective campaigner or a speaker who conveys much substance on the stump.
Once her views are made known to the public, Harris’s support will begin to melt away, though perhaps not as thoroughly as Dukakis’s support did in 1988. After all, there are enough Trump-haters and loyal Democrats to prevent her campaign from collapsing altogether. But by mid-September, Trump will have opened up a six-point lead in the polls that will remain intact for the balance of the campaign. In October, Democrat operatives, aware that Harris’s ticket is going to lose, will begin to shore up downticket races for Congress in the hope of saving some degree of influence in the House and Senate, thereby preventing a total electoral debacle.
Don’t get cocky.