NATE SILVER: Biden is probably in trouble. Here’s how to replace him.

I’m going to do something stupid: not tell you what I think should happen with Biden — that’s covered by the Times story — but offer a prediction of what I think will happen.

The reason this is stupid is because it’s mostly up to one man: Biden. If we’re being extremely literal, the decision technically isn’t Biden’s alone.2 But for all practical purposes, it comes down to the choices of what is probably a very narrow circle of family and advisors — and ultimately to Biden himself. There isn’t any good way to build a formal model of Biden’s thought process.

But by reading this newsletter, I suppose I think you’re indulging me to articulate predictions that will quite possibly be wrong — but where I think I have one or two insights that might be worthwhile. Even if that means people will screencap this and throw it back in my face later — which they will.

And if I had to bet, I’d bet against Biden being the Democratic nominee on Nov. 5.

Will Collier pointed out on Twitter X that Biden’s decision “will probably come down to Jill and Hunter… and they can be bought.”

That’s true enough in Hunter’s case — relatively cheaply, too. But it’s long seemed like the thing Jill wants, she can only get while Biden remains president.

None of this is possible to predict, of course, so stay tuned.