JAMES PETHOKOUKIS: Reversing the global fertility collapse: Tech progress might be the only answer.

Imagine a scenario where a significant shift in societal norms and values dramatically transforms our perceptions of family and childbearing. Fernández-Villaverde has highlighted the stark contrast in birth rates between religious and secular groups in contemporary society, a disparity that was virtually nonexistent half a century ago. This observation underscores the profound influence of sociocultural factors on fertility patterns. It is conceivable that, in the future, people’s beliefs about family structures and dynamics may undergo a radical transformation. Alternatively, the demographic composition of a society could gradually evolve as a result of religious individuals consistently having larger families over the course of several decades.

Or how about this: What if tech-driven economic growth makes us so much richer that we simply choose to work less? Maybe a lot less. With all that extra time and all those extra resources, maybe we would choose to devote more of both to having more kids. As it is, the rich seems to be having more kids than the poor. What if we all were far wealthier than even the top 1 percent are today?

Imagine if we were to build, through faster economic growth, the sort of future imagined by economist John Maynard Keynes in his famous 1930 essay “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren.” As the world was being enveloped by the Great Depression, Keynes attempted to create an upbeat picture of the future to persuade the public that anti-capitalist revolutionaries and reactionaries were wrong. He predicted that by 2030, living standards in Europe and the United States would have advanced so far that the “economic problem” would be solved, and people would want for nothing, except perhaps purpose.

It’s an interesting essay — read the whole thing.

I’d just add that while I certainly hope there’s a tech solution to the birth dearth, recent evidence doesn’t inspire much confidence.