I’VE SEEN THE LOCKDOWNS AND THE DAMAGE DONE: US office buildings face $117BN debt time bomb: Mortgages due this year threaten to sink US economy as thousands of workplaces remain empty.
Economists last month found 40 per cent of office loans on bank balance sheets were underwater – owing more than the property is worth.
Smaller regional banks who loaned the money to buy them could themselves be at risk if the loans default as they are not big enough to handle the losses.
Moody’s Analytics estimates 224 of the 605 loans that will expire soon will be tough to repay or refinance because their owners have too much debt or the buildings aren’t making them enough money.
The analysts predict buildings would need to be generating at least nine per cent of their debt in annual income or their owners will struggle to refinance.
One example is the Seagram building on Park Avenue in Manhattan, which was mortgaged at $760 million in 2012.
The loan assumed the building would bring in $74 million in revenue a year, but the best it ever did was $69 million in 2018 – and only $27 million in 2022, according to the Financial Times.
The light at the end of the tunnel for office space owners is that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates earlier than predicted.
I’m not too sure about that last part with the mixed signals the Fed is sending.