THE FED FEELS RESTLESS? TRY BUYING GROCERIES OR SELLING A HOUSE: Stubborn Core Inflation Helps Explain Some Fed Restlessness.

Compared with October of last year, the core CPI is projected to rise 4.1%. That would match the annual advance in September and snap a six-month stretch of slowing price growth.

While considerable progress has been made since hitting a multi-decade high a year ago, the pace of inflation remains elevated and above the Fed’s goal. Having paused tightening at consecutive meetings, leaving the benchmark rate at a 22-year high, policymakers are proceeding deliberately — and not ruling out further increases.

“If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so,” Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday. “We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of over-tightening.”

If they’d have risked over-tightening a couple of years ago, we might have been spared the worst of it.