THE FUTURE BELONGS TO THOSE WHO SHOW UP: China’s Shrinking Population Is Deeper Problem Than Slow Growth for Its Economy.

A rapidly aging population, slowing growth in productivity, high debt levels and rising social inequality will weigh on the country’s economic ascent for decades to come, economists said.

On Tuesday, the same day that China posted 3% growth, the second-worst growth rate since 1976, it also said that for the first time since 1961, its population shrank.

China’s population dropped by 850,000 to 1.412 billion. The shift toward a shrinking population, which came faster than Beijing had projected, marks a watershed moment in China’s history with profound implications for its economy and its status as the world’s factory floor.

The demographic milestone comes when, despite its enormous size, China’s economy is still that of a middle-income, developing country, as measured by average worker incomes when compared with the U.S. and other rich-country peers. China’s leaders have long held the ambition of leapfrogging the U.S. to become the world’s biggest economy, a task made harder by this strengthening demographic headwind, economists say.

“The likelihood of China someday overtaking the U.S. as No. 1 economy has just gone down a notch,” said Roland Rajah, lead economist at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney think tank.

Previously: The Coming Demographic Collapse of China. “Today, the country has a population more than four times larger than America’s. By 2100, the U.S. will probably have more people than China.”