PUTIN’S LATEST BAD BET: STRATEGIC BOMBING: Russia’s missile war on Ukraine – the historical record indicates it will fail.
The essay mentions strategic bombing theories formulated after WW1, discusses WW2 strategic bombing campaigns and also mentions the Iran-Iraq War’s “war of the cities” (air and missile attacks on civilian populations).
I wrote this Tuesday and didn’t have a link up until today. Zelensky’s speech to Congress and the Biden Administration’s latest support package has made a couple of grafs less speculative.
The Ukrainian government warns that Russia still has a very large missile stockpile and bombarding cities demonstrates why NATO and EU nations must provide Ukraine with modern and plentiful air defense weaponry that can intercept missiles and aircraft.
The American-made Patriot PAC-3 is a proven system that can intercept aircraft and both ballistic and cruise missiles. In my opinion, Ukraine should have received Patriot batteries months ago. Several NATO nations deploy it. Zelensky has specifically asked for the Patriot.
Note I wrote “batteries.” We’ll see how many the U.S. provides.
Bottom line:
Putin is employing strategic air attacks on Ukrainian cities because Ukraine’s air defenses are weak and Ukraine cannot retaliate in kind. With threats of nuclear war failing to frighten the world, Putin thinks strategic air attacks are his winning card.
However, as the war grinds on and the Russian military’s death toll mounts, it may be his only card.
Putin bets cold, hungry and bombing terrorized Ukrainians will surrender, even if the British, Germans, Japanese, Ethiopians, et al. did not.
I think that’s a bad bet.
Check it out.
UPDATE: Russian artillery units have big problems. Ammo shortages, old ammo, depleted stockpiles, troubles on the Trans-Siberian railroad. And mercenaries and “penal battalion men” aren’t doing well in a winter war.