GEORGE FRIEDMAN: Peace Accords.

All of this suggests a war of attrition. Think World War I but without trenches. The Russians initiated combat, and any admission of failure would threaten the government. Ukrainian concessions would be tantamount to an end of the country, or at least an abdication of its independence. From the American point of view, continuing the war is better than defeat, since U.S. security guarantees to other allies would be on the line. (For this reason, I don’t think Washington will involve itself too much in the fine print.)

Under these circumstances, it would appear that the war cannot end. But each country has an imperative not to be broken and not to capitulate. And no one, save the Americans, can walk away. Reality is the ultimate gut check. Ukraine and Russia will posture until the end, even if neither knows exactly what its breaking point is. Each hopes the other is approaching that breaking point, and each wants to avoid reaching it first.

It is this mutual fear of failure that drives each to a negotiated settlement, however contemptible and belligerent that process will be. The opening gut check is followed by an emerging reality of how much you can play and how much your enemy can play, two variables that are considered every day by leaders and soldiers alike. Unthinkable concessions then become thinkable. The hazier this is, the more each side will be frightened that they will suddenly break.

Jaw, jaw really is better than war, war. The trouble is getting the leadership to publicly admit it and come to the table.

It’s even more troublesome for Russia, where a losing war usually leads to political turmoil — or worse.