AUTOCRACIES ALWAYS UNDERPERFORM IN THE LONG RUN: China’s ‘Lost Decade’ Is Even Worse Than You Think.

Turns out, economists worried about a Japan-like “lost decade” in China were both wrong—and right.

By “wrong” we mean that Asia’s largest economy today might not suffer the painful deflationary funk the region’s previous top power did. Or, depending on your view, still is given the comatose state of wages and Japan Inc.’s waning international influence.

By “right” we mean the cost of President Xi Jinping’s disastrous battle with Covid-19 variants Beijing clearly doesn’t understand. It’s helping relegate China to a roughly 4.5% growth rate for this decade—and 3% in the next one. This estimate from Oxford Economics means China won’t be catching up with the U.S. anytime soon in terms of living standards.

In fact, Adam Slater at Oxford suggests that South Korea, Taiwan and other major Asian export economies can probably stop looking over their shoulders, too. The odds of Chinese blowing past developing Asia in per capita income terms anytime soon may be dropping, too.

Plus: “Under Xi, the empire—state-owned enterprises—is striking back. The state sector is feeling emboldened again at a moment when China’s tech innovators are going silent, worried about poking Xi’s regulatory state.”

Lots more to chew on at the link.