WHAT COMES NEXT FOR THE WINNING PARTY? Many magazines have written stories about the political implications of losing. But what about the winners? Will they be in a good position?

In general, you’d think yes. We’re coming out of a recession, which generally means that the next president will enjoy rapid growth in employment and personal livng standards–and that spells popularity. There are, however, some clouds on the horizon, which means that winning may not necessarily be the boon both parties are expecting.

For starters, a number of people are talking about another recession in 2005. High oil prices were the driving force behind the stagnation of the 1970’s; it’s credible to think that it could happen again. Moreover, the recovery has been underpinned by what many people think is an interest-rate bubble: an explosion of consumer debt driven by Alan Greenspan’s free hand with the money supply. Even before Greenspan started to raise rates again, consumers were pretty much maxing out; as they retrench, the economy may slow, and consumer confidence will certainly take a beating. The government balance sheet is in no better shape, and our massive current account deficit (meaning we import much more than we export) means that the dollar is almost certainly going to slide further against both the euro and asian currencies. That means inflation and fewer cheap electronics from China.

And the economy isn’t the only problem spot. There’s Iraq, of course. Then there’s our massive entitlement problem. Towards the middle of the next president’s term, he’s going to have to deal with Medicare opening up a deficit. That means that instead of people’s payroll taxes for Medicare funneling extra money into the general budget, the government will have to start transferring money to Medicare to cover expenses.

Of course, Iraq may have bottomed out, entitlements may stretch out for a few more years before they begin to pinch, and the economy may power forward despite all my dire warnings–it’s a common joke that economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions. In which case, the next president will probably be sitting pretty. Still, if your guy doesn’t carry the day tomorrow, you can console yourself with the thought that he might be getting a lot more than he bargained for.