Even though Gallup has quit election polling, a reservoir of its reporting remains available online; it’s a useful, even revealing resource about campaigns past. For example, in 2008, Gallup posted an article online that noted polls of July are not always reliable indicators of outcomes in November.
Miscalling the 2012 election
It is a useful reminder, relevant even now as polls signal President Donald Trump’s reelection seems a long shot in his unfolding race against gaffe-prone Joe Biden.
The winners of July who lost in November have been several over the years, and go beyond the cases of Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among the others in Gallup’s polling were:
Read the whole thing.