NO, A LOCKDOWN WOULDN’T HAVE HELPED: Understanding the Deaths in Stockholm. Proponents of lockdowns have seized on the large number of deaths in Stockholm’s nursing homes to criticize Sweden for not shutting down its economy. But it’s doubtful that a lockdown would have made much difference. Residents in nursing homes are particularly vulnerable to infection, as Chris Pope has explained in City Journal, because they live in a group setting and require so much hands-on care from health-care workers who are treating other people. They also typically suffer from other chronic illnesses that make them likely to die in less than a year once they enter a nursing home in Stockholm, as Charlotta Stern and Daniel Klein calculate. The researchers conclude:

Most Covid-19 victims had already been in the nursing home for some time. The disease tends to strike down the most vulnerable, and the disease takes some time. From all considerations, it is reasonable to say that those who died of Covid-19 in Stockholm’s nursing homes had a life-remaining median somewhere in the range of 5 to 9 months. . . .

The overall number of deaths of people in nursing homes in Sweden has not, in fact, been much elevated, compared to recent years. Over the period January through April 2020, the number of deaths among those in nursing homes was about 11,000, whereas for the previous year it was about 10,000. And that previous year was unusually low, partly because the 2019 flu season was relatively mild. It is possible that come 2020 the nursing-home population was even more vulnerable than usual.

Sweden’s approach is looking better and better.