EPIDEMIOLOGISTS AS THE NEW GURUS: WHAT ABOUT THE EXCESS DEATH RATE?

To understand the meaning of all the deaths in Italy, it would be extraordinarily helpful to know one figure that I’ve never seen discussed: the number of excess deaths; that is, the number over and above what is usual this time of year in Italy.

I have no doubt the number is higher than usual and that there are excess deaths, particularly in certain regions of the north where the virus has been concentrated. But how much higher? Italy ordinarily has a particularly high rate of death from the flu, which makes the “excess death” figure especially important to know. Are significant numbers of the deaths we’re seeing in Italy deaths that would be taking place anyway from the flu or other illnesses we’re accustomed to? And if so, how many?

Speaking of Italy: Coronavirus: The Price of Luxury — Fashion’s “Made in Italy” tag is connected to a Chinese disease.