ANALYSIS: TRUE. With its bedrock smashed to pieces, Labour cannot win.

No part of the UK has been more faithful to Labour than Wales. The party has won almost every general election in nearly 100 years. In the south Welsh valleys, “Tory” is less of an affiliation than an insult. Now all that stands to be upended – in a result that will drive political columnists to file obits for Corbyn. But spend some time in Bridgend, as I did just after May’s flying visit, reporting for the Guardian and making a film for Vice News, and a more complex and worrying picture emerges.

First, this is not an election that the Conservatives are winning, it’s one Labour is losing. In Bridgend, I never once spotted a blue placard or poster. There wasn’t even a Tory candidate, until late last week, when central office imposed its own woman against the wishes of the local association. All this reminds me of visiting south Wales before last year’s Brexit vote, and realising that the ground game for Vote Leave was mainly a bunch of teenagers – one of whom was about to sit his GCSEs.

What’s affecting the Labour vote? The truth is, it’s been sliding for years in Bridgend, and leadership is only a small part of the reason why. Party diehards will say almost unanimously that they like Corbyn “and his ideas”, but the most telling comment I heard was from Ben, a thirtysomething who worked at the local Ford plant. He reeled off the Labour leaders he’d lived under: Blair, Brown, Miliband, Corbyn. “These people couldn’t be further from what I am. They don’t represent me.” He saw the divide not as ideological but cultural. Never mind the nuances in policy, what he heard was the same breed of professional politician. And while his dad and granddad had “always voted Labour”, he wouldn’t.

As Labour has removed itself culturally from its working-class roots (sound familiar?), it has also retreated politically from the center and into far-leftism (which should also sound familiar).