This thought is not original to me, but bears repeating just now: if you like historical election cycle analogies, we’re going through 1968 all over again, with Trump in the Nixon/Wallace role. The 1968 election was much less about the economy that usual. Though there were some worrying signs in the economy, it was still doing reasonably well, with the trouble being stored up (especially inflation) not becoming apparent for a few more years. The economy today, while not great, is doing okay. The 1968 election was much more a cultural election—a reaction against the irresponsibility and chaos of the Great Society, along with a reaction against a botched foreign policy. Do these factors sounds familiar? Nixon and Wallace together utterly shattered the old Democratic Party electoral coalition.
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(Classical reference in headline.)