A COMING DEMOCRATIC CRACKUP:

The 2008 Obama campaign assembled a large pan-ethnic coalition of young, non-affluent, and non-white voters. But as his first term failed to deliver on the promise of rapid economic improvement, many of those 2008 voters fell away. Beginning with Andrew Jackson, every twice-elected president has seen his vote total rise at his second appearance on the ballot: Lincoln, Grant, Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton. Barack Obama was the first and to date only exception. He received almost 3.6 million fewer votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. Where did these votes go? Not, mostly, to his Republican challenger. Mitt Romney won only 900,000 more votes than John McCain. Nor was there any significant exit to third- and fourth-party candidates. Rather, some 2.5 million 2008 Obama votes just … didn’t show up in 2012. . . .

For the black voters who saved Barack Obama in 2012, the Great Recession and the slow recovery have been one long continuing catastrophe. Between 2007 and 2009, black homeowners were 70 percent more likely to suffer foreclosure than whites. Higher-earning black families were 80 percent more likely to lose their homes than their white counterparts.

The evanescence of black homeownership explains why post-recession the wealth of the median black family tumbled to 1/13th the wealth of the median white family—a disparity wider than any at time in the past quarter century.

The black middle class depended more than other groups on the state and local public-sector jobs that vanished in post-recession budget cutting. The income of the median black household dropped 9.2 percent between 2007 and 2013—as against 5.6 percent for the median white household.

Despite three years of supposed economic recovery, black children were as likely to be poor in 2013 as in 2010—and more likely than at any time since the early 1990s. Almost four out of 10 black children are now growing up in poverty, as against one in nine white children. More than 25 percent of the black poor now live in areas of concentrated poverty, triple the rate for poor white people.

The uniquely harsh African American economic experience since 2007 has divided black opinion further from that of other elements of the Obama coalition. Only 29 percent of Latinos under age 30 think illegal immigrants take jobs from Americans—but 48 percent of African Americans under 30 think so.

Sounds like a . . . Trumpportunity!

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THE 21ST CENTURY ISN’T TURNING OUT AS I’D HOPED: Muslim Model Hangs Herself to Avoid Arranged Marriage. I’d criticize this sort of thing, with the arranged marriages, the honor killings, and so on, but “that’s their culture.”

LIFE IN THE ERA OF HOPE AND CHANGE: Record Numbers Of Millennials Moving Back In With Parents.

It’s crucial that both parties understand the financial implications of this homecoming. For parents, a child’s return often means a greater financial burden, just as the parents may be struggling to meet their own savings and retirement goals. It also can make it more difficult for the millennials to acquire the financial skills they’ll need later in life.

According to a recent study by PEW Research Center, the percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds living with their parents is higher today than it has been in decades. Currently, 26% are back in the nest, up from 22% in 2007. The rise has occurred among both high-school and college graduates, and has continued since the recession’s end, despite the fact that millennials are earning more and have a lower unemployment rate than they did a few years ago.

Of potentially greater concern is a related trend that shows parents are providing financial support to children long after they turn 21. According to a 2013 poll of parents by Clark University in Worcester, Mass., 56% of parents of 26- to 29-year-olds provide those children with at least occasional financial support.

“People used to make jokes about moving back in with mom and dad, but we have come to recognize that it takes longer to attain full adulthood than it used to,” says Jeffrey Arnett, a psychology professor at Clark. Prof. Arnett attributes this change to rising levels of education and student debt.

Wow, if only someone had warned of this earlier.

DROPPING THE MASK: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Admits in Email: Medicaid Is A Failure . ‘Half of Planned Parenthood patients are low-income Americans who rely on Medicaid. That’s a big problem, because fewer than half of all U.S. doctors accept Medicaid.’

VIOLENCE WORKS, ESPECIALLY AGAINST COWARDS: Art showing Isil menacing Sylvanian Families removed from exhibition. “Mimsy explained that she had decided to go under a pseudonym when presenting her work to ‘avoid any possibility of beheading’.”

If our cultural leaders agreed not to give in to this sort of threat, then the threats would be ineffectual because there would be too many targets. But they’re cowards — or, worse, through some sort of toxic multicultural “privilege” theory, think that they deserve to be threatened and intimidated. As I keep saying, beware of the incentive system you’re creating, because others are watching and taking notes.

MICKEY KAUS: Boehner’s departure *not* bigger than Cantor loss. Cantor a terrifying vote of the people.

THE CAMP OF THE SAINTS IS JUST A NOVEL, RIGHT GUYS? RIGHT? GUYS? So… how’s that flood of migrants working out for Germany? “Officials in Giessen have taken to warning their own citizens not to go out alone at night. Near the local school they have suggested that women and children not leave their homes dressed in a ‘provocative’ style that exposes too much skin because of the assaults taking place. The generous nature of the residents is clearly being put to the test.”

TALKING POINTS. Or maybe Journolistism.

THAT’S NICE: 1.5-Pound Baby Born On Cruise Ship At 23 Weeks, Beats 30 Percent Survival Odds.

A towel-wrapped 1.5-pound male infant—aptly called a “miracle baby”—made it out of a cruise ship and reached the port alive despite being born premature with low chances of survival.

Emily Morgan of Ogden, Utah, who was on a seven-day cruise aboard the Royal Caribbean’s Independence of the Seas with her husband and 3-year-old daughter, said doctors did not expect her preemie son Haiden to live.

His strong lungs, an improvised incubator and a timely arrival in San Juan, Puerto Rico, likely saved the baby, now receiving care at a Miami neonatal intensive care unit.

The mother was in her 23rd week of pregnancy (the baby was not due until December) and was allowed by her doctor to go on the cruise. On the second day, however, she began to experience labor pains after going to bed. . . .

With the ship 14 hours away from the nearest Puerto Rican port, she gave birth to Haiden but was told by doctors that she miscarried. She insisted on seeing the baby when her “motherly instincts kicked in,” Morgan recalled.

Baby Haiden was initially pronounced dead but was revived and breathing 45 minutes later, although doctors were not optimistic about his odds of survival.

In the next few critical hours, the medical team on board kept Haiden warm using towels and heated saline pads and fed him a dextrose solution until the ship docked in San Juan two hours ahead of schedule—likely saving Haiden’s life, according to local doctors.

Good improvisation.

TEACH WOMEN NOT TO RAPE! (CONT’D): Rutgers Professor Accused Of Raping Disabled, Nonverbal, Diaper-Wearing Black Man Takes The Stand In Her Own Defense.

During cross-examination, philosophy professor Anna Stubblefield, 45, insisted she and the victim – a 34-year-old African-American man who is unable to speak or eat on his own – were in a consensual relationship.

Under questioning from her lawyer Wednesday, Stubblefield explained the man could express himself through a technique known as facilitated communication in which she used her hands to help him type on a keyboard.

But the prosecution Thursday questioned the method and how the man could communicate if he wanted to stop having sex in her Newark office in 2011.

Stubblefield said he could bang on the floor.

So to be clear: A woman who’s had a single sip of alcohol is unable to consent to sex. But a profoundly retarded man who can’t speak or eat on his own can. More of that Male Privilege at work, I guess.

I PREDICT AN EXPENSIVE FAILURE MARKED BY EXTENSIVE CORRUPTION: Scotland and Ireland Consider a Linked Renewable Energy Future.

THE LATTER, HOWEVER, ARE FAR MORE LIKELY TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY AND DURATION OF HUMAN LIFE: The Internet Loves Pizza Rat, Hates Greedy Biotech Investors.

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DO TELL: Anne-Marie Slaughter: Women Are Sexist, Too.

SO… HOW’S THAT FLOOD OF MIGRANTS WORKING OUT FOR GERMANY? In 2011, Thomas Friedman wrote a much-parodied headline which asked, “Can Greeks Become Germans?” Friedman was asking if left-leaning but profligate Greeks could adopt the left-leaning but (at least in comparison with Greek) financially frugal values that have allowed Germany to dominate the EU.

But today, Jazz Shaw notes:

These are only the earliest reports coming out of Germany since the initial flood of “refugees” began to arrive and they are expecting up to a million more in the months to come. As noted above, barely a third of them are actually fleeing Syria, with the rest coming from other places like Pakistan as “economic migrants” who are looking forward to enjoying Germany’s generous welfare state. By this point it’s not too difficult to imagine that the Germans are beginning to wonder how much more they can absorb. Their largely Christian nation is being overrun by a different culture, and while Germany has been one of the most prosperous members of the EU, just how many “guests” can they afford to feed and house? How many new police units will they have to fund to keep track of the spiraling crime? And when it comes to people like the brothers from Pakistan interviewed for the article, how will they manage vetting all of these people and trying to evict those who are not victims of ISIS, but simply interlopers looking to cash in on Germany’s generosity?

To be fair, I’m sure Germany will integrate their new “refugees” into their culture just as well as France has been doing over the past few decades…

‘MARS MYSTERY SOLVED’ MONDAY SAYS NASA: “One thing is sure, it better be good. NASA has raised expectations so that nothing less than Mars-shattering news will justify the dog and pony show” tomorrow.

SETH BARRETT TILLMAN: Why Punish Wrongdoing?

DEAR JOHN: “Far be it from me to interrupt the Trumpian chest-beating on the right at Boehner’s announced resignation,” Andrew Klavan writes, “but I still can’t help having some sympathy for the guy:”

I can’t help but notice that under Boehner — and largely because of Boehner, because Boehner outsmarted President Obama in the 2013 budget negotiations — federal spending has declined over a five year period for the first time since the post World War II cutbacks. And because of this, as the economy has struggled to a sputtering recovery despite Democrat mismanagement, the deficit has been sharply reduced…

Also under Boehner — and also largely because of then-minority leader Boehner (and the likewise much-maligned-by-conservatives Mitch McConnell in the Senate) — the disaster of Obamacare is 100% attributable to the Democrats. It hasn’t got a single Republican fingerprint on it.

Serious question: without control of the White House and without a veto-proof majority in the Senate, what would you wanted to have seen from a GOP Speaker?

Related: Boehner: Conservative critics follow ‘false prophets’ with empty promises.

More: Responding to my question at the end of the post, Steve Hayward of Power Line emailed me a link to his recent post, “What’s Next for the House?”

CHANGE: Joel Kotkin: China’s Planned City Bubble Is About to Pop—and Even You’ll Feel It.

LAURENCE JARVIK: “Share The Road” — And Die. “Cars and trucks are heavy, drive fast, and take up a lot of space. Bicycles are slower, lighter, and take up less room. The optimal solution, obviously, is to segregate bicyclists from drivers. Separate bikes lanes are a first step, completely isolated bicycle paths even more desirable.”

TAXPROF ROUNDUP: The IRS Scandal, Day 871.

P.J. O’ROURKE isn’t crazy about Ann Coulter.

Toward Ann Coulter I had always taken a “suffer little children to come unto me” attitude. Not that she ever came on to me or anything. It’s just that she’s a kid. She was born in 1961. I’ve got skinny Brooks Brothers neckties in the back of my closet older than that.

Ann Coulter grew up during the “I-was-conservative-after-conservatism-was-cool” era, helping found the Cornell Review in the early 1980s. She’s noisy and she gives me a headache. But kids are, and kids do. I have several.

She’s from Connecticut and is very upset about immigrants. I am willing to lend a sympathetic ear to people from Connecticut who are very upset about immigrants, if they have a tribal casino.

And I forgive her for supporting Donald Trump. Kids do that stuff. My 17-year-old daughter has wheedled the car keys and right now is out probably behaving at least as stupidly. . . .

She is young, scatter-brained, and heedless, but she is not an idiot. She graduated cum laude from Cornell and has a J.D. from the University of Michigan Law School. But no intelligent hike through the Minotaur’s labyrinth of politics can be made in 140-character baby steps. Especially when you’re walking in clown shoes.

At least he calls her young.

GOOD: DC Plan To Regulate Personal Trainers Takes Another Hit.