“THE SUPER BOWL IS A LAGGING INDICATOR OF INDUSTRY HEALTH:”

Our industry spent $100 million on Super Bowl ads to build trust in AI.

We built the opposite.

I need to tell you about a parallel that nobody in that hospitality suite mentioned, although every person in the room was old enough to remember it.

Super Bowl XXXVI. February 2022. Crypto firms bought the ad breaks. Coinbase. FTX. Crypto[.]com. They spent $54 million collectively. The ads were flashy and confident and told 100 million Americans that the future was decentralized and inevitable and worth their money.

FTX collapsed ten months later.

Coinbase spent the following year in court.

Crypto[.]com’s CEO is now spending $70 million on AI domain names.

We spent more than double what crypto spent. I know this because Tech Brew calculated it this morning and my VP of Communications forwarded it to me with no comment. She always adds a comment. The absence was the comment.

Here is what I know that I am not supposed to say.

A lagging indicator means the peak has already happened.

It means the industry already believes in itself more than the public does. It means the money has been spent, the bets have been placed, and the audience — the 130 million people you needed to convince — sat through your pitch and felt nothing but annoyance.

I spent $8 million to learn something that a Harris poll could have told me for free.

Nobody wants what we are selling. Not like this. Not yet. Maybe not ever. But “maybe not ever” is not a phrase that survives a board meeting, so we say “not yet” and buy another ad.

The earnings call is in six weeks. When the analyst asks about brand strategy, I will say the word “awareness” and the word “consideration” and the word “momentum.”

I will not say “warm slop.”

I will not say “lagging indicator.”

I will not mention FTX.

I will not tell them about the sentiment dashboard, or the Slack message, or the eleven CMOs in the suite who watched the needle go red and poured another drink.

We will do this again next year.

In a Forbes column about Super Bowl ads 20 years ago titled “Advertising Vs. Entertaining,” Jack Trout wrote, “What’s the measure of success? Like a movie, it’s how well they are reviewed. The press is an enormous contributor to this phenomenon. Everybody weighs in on what commercials were most popular, leading to adjectives such as charming, hilarious, cute, crisp and funny. Sure, they will occasionally say a commercial is unfunny or silly, but you never read a critic saying, ‘I didn’t see a reason to buy that product anywhere.’ Hey, this is the Super Bowl, and the object is to entertain, not sell.”

Sure your merchandise may not move, or the viewers will passionately hate the new technology, but Don Draper’s successors will enjoy collecting their Clio Awards come springtime, built on your company’s advertising budget.