ASKING THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS: Is It Over for Tim Walz?

With the incompetence (or worse) of Tim Walz’s administration being the number one news story in the country, my non-Minnesota friends ask me: “Tim Walz couldn’t possibly be re-elected. Could he?”

Let’s first dispose of any criminal issue. Elon Musk, in the tweet embedded above, urges that Walz be prosecuted. But there is no evidence that he, or other members of his administration, have committed crimes. Rather, they have perpetrated the dodge that has been a mainstay of the Democratic Party for going on 100 years: buying votes with other people’s money. They have pumped billions of dollars into Minnesota’s relatively small (100,000-150,000) and insular Somali community, and by doing so have created a solid and reliable voting bloc that has helped to swing one election after another their way. Why should they care if half or more of those billions of dollars were fraudulent? Criminal or not, the spending bought votes.

Did Tim Walz know the frauds were going on? Of course. Even Walz isn’t that stupid. But absent taking bribes, of which there is zero evidence, he has not committed a crime.

That said, Walz’s standing with Minnesota voters is teetering on the edge. Conventional polling has shown him around even in approval/disapproval, with approval a little under 50%. Not great, but not hopeless. I think the most meaningful poll is the one that was conducted for American Experiment by Meeting Street Insights and published here. We found a very high level of awareness of the frauds among Minnesota voters, and also a high level of concern: 68% said that fraud would play a role in their vote for governor in 2026, with 50% saying it would play a major role.

Walz ought to resign in disgrace and drop forever out of public life, but we know that will never happen.