HMM: China’s factory activity shrinks again in November, services cool.

The data reflects manufacturers’ difficulty in sustaining a recovery after COVID-19, compounded by a trade war with the U.S. that has ramped up pressure on businesses.

Output stalled, with the sub-index coming at 50.0. Sub-indexes of new orders and new export orders both improved from October but remained below 50.

Although manufacturing continued to slow in November, “We maintain our view that government may hold off on major policy support until the first quarter next year, since this year’s growth target appears broadly achievable,” Goldman Sachs economist Yuting Yang said in a research note.

The government’s 2025 growth target is around 5%.

For decades, China’s policymakers have had two reliable levers to juice growth: revving up the nation’s huge industrial machine to boost exports when household spending softened, or unleashing state-funded infrastructure projects to drive momentum.

But with a global slowdown, a protracted property crisis and local governments straining under debt, officials are finding it hard to jump-start activity, putting renewed focus on the need for economic reforms.

It’s been said before, but Beijing can either loosen control or accept slower growth. So far, Beijing choses slower growth.