HARRY ENTEN: The Democratic brand is in about as good a position as the Cracker Barrel rebrand. Bad, bad, bad.

What we’re talking here in terms of big party registration changes in the key swing states, let’s look at four key swing states that do keep track of registration by party. Look, the Republican Party is in their best position at this point in the cycle since at least 2005, in all four of these key battleground states.

How about Arizona, Nevada? Republicans haven’t done this well since 2005. Oh my goodness gracious, at this point in a cycle.

North Carolina, I couldn’t find a point at which Republicans were doing better at this point in the cycle. It’s at least this century, probably goes way back to the last century.

Pennsylvania, very similar. Republicans are doing better at this point than any time this century, as far as I could find.

Now, what types of gains are we talking about here for the Republican Party? Well, let’s compare it to this point during their first Trump administration, all the way back in 2017.

Look at this: Republican Party gains in party registration compared to this point back in 2017, during the Trump first administration. Arizona, you got a Republican gain of three points. How about Nevada? Up the hill we go, even though we’re sticking in the southwest, again, a six-point gain. How about again we come to the East Coast, North Carolina, a gain of eight points for the Republicans. And then the Keystone State in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, again we’re talking about a gain of eight points.

My goodness gracious, for Republicans, they are converting old former Democrats to their side of the ledger, as well as picking up new voters, registering new voters, and it absolutely paid off for them back in that 2024 election.

Don’t get cocky, because Democrat energy has them outperforming their numbers in off-year elections.