JOEL KOTKIN: AI revolution will crush the blue states.

In the class I teach with Marshall Koplansky at Chapman University, several students predicted that the jobs they currently hold will soon disappear. Among them were a game designer, two human-resources executives, and a manufacturing and warehouse manager.

My engineering colleagues report a similar trend. While opportunities remain strong for mechanical and chemical engineers, as well as for those designing robotics, the outlook is far less certain for computer science students. Despite soaring profits at the largest tech companies, AI programming tools have enabled sweeping layoffs at firms such as Amazon, Intel, Meta and Microsoft. Today, among college graduates aged 22-27, computer science and computer engineering majors face some of the highest unemployment rates, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

In response, many firms are now focusing on building tangible products rather than merely shifting algorithms for commerce or generating more social media. In the aerospace and defence sectors, for example, AI is seen not as an end but a tool. It is a means to enhance human creativity and productivity rather than replace it. “Software is not in the greatest position with AI,” Delian Asparouhov, who runs a firm focused on in-space manufacturing, told me. “Now people are shifting to hard tech. Designing and building spaceships still needs people.”

This could spell trouble for elite universities, but represents a major advantage for schools that teach the practical skills companies actually need. So far, these opportunities are largely concentrated in red and purple states in the Midwest and South — the regions most focused on reshoring manufacturing and other industries from overseas.

Gavin Newsom can boast about California having the fourth-largest GDP in the world, thanks largely to the tech giants. But the benefits will keep trickling down to normal-sized people in places like Texas and Florida.