THE NEW SPACE RACE: After recent tests, China appears likely to beat the United States back to the Moon. “An expert explains why this will be enormously bad for the United States.”

Ars: How likely is it that China lands humans on the Moon before NASA can return there with the Artemis Program?

Cheng: At the rate things are going, sadly, it seems quite likely that the Chinese will land on the Moon before NASA can return to the Moon.

Ars: What would the geopolitical impact be if China beats the United States back to the Moon?

Cheng: The geopolitical impact of the Chinese beating the US to the Moon (where we are returning) would be enormous.

Ars: How so?

Cheng: It means the end of American exceptionalism. One of the hallmarks of the post-1969 era was that only the United States had been able to land someone on the Moon (or any other celestial body). This was bound to end, but the constant American refrain of “We’ve put a man on the Moon, we can do anything” will certainly no longer resonate.

It means China can do “big” things, and the United States cannot. The US cannot even replicate projects it undertook 50 (or more) years ago. The optics of “the passing of the American age” would be evident—and that in turn would absolutely affect other nations’ perceptions of who is winning/losing the broader technological and ideological competition between the US and the PRC.

I certainly hope we beat China to the Moon — the prime real estate will go to whoever can plant their flag on it.

But Cheng is wrong when he says that the “US cannot even replicate projects it undertook 50 (or more) years ago.” China’s lunar program, at least from what we’ve seen so far, is essentially a repeat of Apollo.

It’s the US trying something new. If SpaceX can get Starship performing as promised — “At SpaceX, we specialize in converting things from impossible to late.” — we might not beat China back to the Moon, but we’ll be able to get there with a lot more of the stuff needed to establish a permanent settlement. Faster and much cheaper, too.

Still, I’d hate to lose the race back.