As Trump turns toward Ukraine, Russians wonder if an opportunity was missed.

But Trump’s new weapons deal and his increasing criticism of Putin’s grinding military campaign have sparked an uneasiness among some factions of the Russian elite over the deepening conflict and fears that Putin could overplay his hand.

“The number of those who are upset with Putin for the fact that he could have stopped the war but didn’t do it is growing,” Stanovaya said. “It is not a question of whether such a deal was ever genuinely possible, but rather a matter of prevailing sentiment — a belief that there was a moment of opportunity, unilaterally squandered due to Putin’s obstinacy and irrationality.”

A deal was not possible because, “as [Vice President] JD Vance said, Putin wants too much,” Stanovaya said.

In the spring, there had been hope that Trump and Putin would reach an agreement and ease sanctions, especially after envoy Steve Witkoff talked about a deal for lifting sanctions and recognizing Russia’s territorial conquests in return for freezing the front line.

The Kremlin, however, indicated that such an approach was only “okay as a starting point,” Stanovaya said. Momentum for the deal died, especially in the face of Ukrainian and European opposition to an agreement that could give Moscow the opportunity to later take additional territory, and Russia stuck to its hard-line, maximalist goals.

With no deal now in sight, concern has been growing among members of Russia’s financial elite about the deterioration of a Russian economy racked by inflation due to the existing sanctions regime and Putin’s wartime spending spree. Central Bank efforts to rein in price growth by imposing sky-high interest rates at over 20 percent have pitched the country toward a credit crisis and recession.

Absent a ceasefire in 50 days, could Trump’s 100% secondary tariffs on nations trading with Russia tip their economy into recession — or worse? Nobody really knows.

Related: The Kremlin Sure Woke Up Cranky After Trump’s Ultimatum.