MICHAEL BAHARAEEN: A Final, Comprehensive Look at How Trump Won in 2024.

The rightward shift nationally was propelled almost entirely by non-white voters.

Though racial minorities overall supported Kamala Harris, there was a clear move to the right among three populations: blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Black Americans were still one of the most pro-Democratic groups, backing Harris by 68 points (83 percent to 15 percent), but this represented a 14-point rightward swing from just four years earlier, with Trump nearly doubling his vote share from eight percent to 15. The movement was especially pronounced among black men, who shifted toward Trump by more than any other demographic cohort—22 points. And even black women moved right by nine points.

The group that swung by the most along racial or ethnic lines, though, was Hispanics. Longtime TLP readers will know that Democrats have been losing support from Hispanic Americans for some time now, so this development in last year’s election wasn’t exactly surprising. What was more remarkable is that Trump won a greater share of the Hispanic vote than any Republican presidential nominee on record: 45 percent.2 The result—a mere seven-point advantage for Harris—made Hispanics a true swing group in this last election.

Asian Americans can be a little harder to capture than blacks and Hispanics, as they are the smallest share of the electorate among the non-white groups these studies typically analyze. But from what we can tell, they shifted right by nearly as much as Hispanics. After backing Joe Biden by more than a two-to-one margin in 2020 (67 to 32 percent), they still supported Harris, but by a much smaller 19-point margin. The swings appeared to be greater among non-college Asian women, specifically.

For their part, white voters pretty much stood pat relative to 2020, backing Trump by 14 points, a small two-point rightward shift.

Four years of Joe Biden — and 107 days of Kamala Harris — was all it took to shift pretty much the entire country to the right. The most notable exception being neurotic, woke women.