SQUEEZE HARDER: Iran’s Negotiating Position Gets Worse and Worse.
The U.S. and its allies in the Middle East want to ensure that Iran won’t build nuclear weapons; Iran wants to gain relief from harsh U.S.-led economic sanctions and avoid potential Israeli or American military strikes on its nuclear sites. Until recently, Khamenei was unwilling to consider making the concessions necessary for an agreement. But the pressure on Khamenei’s regime—both external and domestic—has grown to the point that he had no choice but to retreat.
During the past year, Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, a coalition of pro-Tehran militias across the Middle East, has been crushed by Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Hezbollah and American strikes on Yemen’s Houthis. The Syrian revolution that brought down Bashar al-Assad, Khamenei’s close ally, further eroded the Iranian leader’s strategy of “forward defense”—which is to say, relying on its Arab proxies to keep its adversaries away from the homeland. Meanwhile, Trump has also bolstered America’s presence in the Persian Gulf, suggesting to Khamenei that military attacks on Iranian soil are the most likely alternative to negotiations.
Inside Iran, public discontent with the regime’s political repression and economic mismanagement has grown. Many in the Iranian establishment are making ever more explicit demands for an end to their country’s isolation.
In a remarkable display of elite dissatisfaction, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri, commemorated the Iranian New Year holidays earlier this month by shooting a video message outside Persepolis, the seat of the First Persian Empire, which dates back to the sixth century B.C.E. Bagheri expressed hope that Iran could follow “the same ideals” he had witnessed in the ancient monument: “peace, calm, friendship, and brotherhood with other nations.” Such a statement from Iran’s top soldier was unprecedented.
Was that message tacitly approved by Khamenei or is Iran’s regular military (not the Revolutionary Guard) sending a message of its own?