IT’S ABOUT TIME: How Europe hopes to turn Ukraine into a ‘steel porcupine.’

First, Europe would procure more munitions and weapons systems on Ukraine’s behalf, including crucial air-defence missiles. Second, it would boost Ukraine’s own defence industry, which it calls “the most effective and cost-efficient way to support Ukraine’s military efforts”. The plan is the brainchild of Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister who is now the European Union’s top diplomat. She wants to double military aid to Ukraine this year, to €40bn ($44bn).

The case for investing in Ukraine’s indigenous arms industry is compelling. Ukraine was a big weapons-manufacturer during the Soviet era, but the industry largely vanished after independence in 1991. Nonetheless, there was an engineering base and a thriving new tech sector to draw on when Russia launched its full-scale invasion three years ago. The country had the foundations: a solid manufacturing sector and loads of engineering schools and universities from which people with highly specialised knowledge transitioned to defence, says Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defence minister who chairs the Centre for Defence Strategies, a think-tank in Kyiv. “Since 2022 the development has been extremely active. There is a constant innovation process,” he adds. Whereas arms procurement in the West typically takes years, in Ukraine an idea can be translated into a weapon in a soldier’s hand within months.

Last year Ukrainian arms firms churned out $10bn-worth of kit, according to a report in March by the Ukrainian Institute for the Future (uif), another think-tank. That represented an extraordinary three-fold increase from 2023, and ten-fold from 2022. The more than 800 private and state-owned enterprises in the defence sector employ 300,000 skilled workers. Oleksandr Kamyshin, who oversees the defence industry for Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, says that this year production will be about $15bn, but the sector will have the capacity to produce about $35bn. The constraint is simply lack of money, which he hopes allies will assist with.

It’s nice to see Europe talk about really stepping up — after three years — but will they follow through?