THE NEW SPACE RACE: Fearing US ‘hostility,’ Russia could ‘escalate early’ in a space conflict.

The key problem, the study finds, is that Moscow’s hyper-suspicious view of US military intentions in space are driving Russia’s military to a more aggressive and hair-trigger stance, but also raising barriers to bilateral communications aimed at ratcheting down conflict risks and/or finding ways to de-escalate once a crisis is underway.

“Russia’s fears about U.S. incentives for early escalation in the space domain and perceptions of U.S. hostility heighten the potential for misperceptions of U.S. actions in space. Russia’s emerging approach to escalation management—a cost-imposition strategy based on the belief that escalation can be controlled—might further reinforce perceived incentives to escalate early,” the study states.

Indeed, there is a school of thought among Russian analysts that is highly concerned about US threats to the space-based elements of Moscow’s nuclear deterrent and the possibility that Washington plans to use space to conduct a disarming attack to deprive Russia of its retaliatory capability, the study adds.

Given the atrophied condition of Russia’s launch capabilities, any space offensive would likely be a short one.