EMIL KASTEHELMI ON RUSSIA’S BALTIC SABOTAGE EFFORTS: A thread.

The latest sabotage operation was likely aimed at Estonia, which is soon disconnecting itself from the Russian electricity grid together with Latvia & Lithuania. Singular damaged cables don’t cause a crisis yet, but we’ve likely only seen the beginning, the testing phase.

The current situation can also be described as the gray phase. The enemy is conducting sabotage, disinformation and hybrid operations, which can be followed with more significant diplomatic and even military pressure. I doubt Russia has planned to stop their actions yet.

Currently, operations are carried out through various covert arrangements, although it’s not unclear to anyone whose interests lie behind them. Russia is actively testing how the politicians and authorities in the targeted areas react to sabotage and various other operations.

The problem with the West is that countries prefer to hesitate, when clear and determined force would be needed. A show of force is the only thing Russia understands. Any display of weakness encourages Russia to continue and strike harder, as has happened throughout the year.

Metaphorically, Russia stabs soft societies with a bayonet until it meets steel. Finland has endured numerous hostile operations over the past year, such as sabotage, weaponization of migrants and cyber attacks. Now some steel has been finally shown with a strong response.

And by tiny Finland, at that. Maybe the loss of one of their “shadow fleet” tankers will give Moscow pause.