NATE COHN: 2024 Review: A Few Misses, but the Polls Got the Big Stories Right.
There’s a decent case that the polls were the best they’ve ever been in 2024.
That’s not necessarily true by the usual measures. When judged against the final results, the polls missed by a more or less average margin. And, worryingly, they systematically underestimated support for Donald J. Trump for the third cycle in a row.
But by a less conventional measure — value more than accuracy — the polls excelled. They were fundamentally right about a surprising and important story about the election — a story we might not have imagined, let alone expected, without them.
As Joseph Campbell tweets in response, “Now that’s a stretch, as #polls understated Trump’s support for third successive election. Not to mention the Iowa Poll misfire and battleground state misses.”
Flashback: Disgraced Pollster Ann Selzer Retires After Iowa Poll Miss.