MIDDLE EAST: The Lesson From Bashar Al-Assad’s Collapse.

The question now is what other countries could be vulnerable to the same dynamics that led to Assad’s fall, especially as Assad’s ouster reminds ordinary people that no dictator needs to be permanent.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is one such country. Iran maintains two militaries. A conscript army that many Iranians resent and seek to avoid, it is common for Iranian farmers to delay registering their sons’ births to keep them as labor for several extra years. Protests and uprisings in Iran have become more frequent. Should Iranian Arabs rise, for example, not only might ordinary recruits resist fighting their fellow countrymen, but the impact on the Iranian oil trade that is centered in the region could mean the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—Iran’s more elite, volunteer military—would not have access to the extra cash that incentivizes loyalty. Throw “Maximum Pressure” into the mix, and President-elect Donald Trump could be the American president who witnesses the Islamic Republic’s fall.

Egypt is another. Moral among conscripts in the Egyptian military is almost as poor as the country itself. The Egyptian Army is better known as a business than a fighting force among Egyptians. This is a double-edged sword, as the military’s monopolization and distortion of the economy worsens living standards and breeds resentment. While the Muslim Brotherhood has its own arrogance and undemocratic proclivities to blame for its rapid fall from power, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi misjudges reality if he believes that the Egyptian people’s support for him is genuine rather than a calculation that he was the lesser of two evils. If the Egyptian opposition reforms and the Egyptian military continues its corruption, Egypt will face another wave of instability.

Much more at the link.

I’m curious to see if Erdogan tries to consolidate his gains in northern Syria at Russia’s expense or if there’s a profitable deal to be made with Putin to keep Russia’s air and naval bases.