RENOUNCE SYSTEMIC COCKSUREDNESS! Emerson Finale: Trump On Track For 281 Electoral College Votes. “Party-ID shifts in a cycle on this scale — from D+5 in a narrow 2020 election to R+3 now — indicate voter intent on a broad scale. That analysis gets reflected in the major early-voting gains for the GOP this cycle, as well as polls that may be still afflicted by shy-voter polling syndrome. But there’s no better way to win elections than to actually vote — and to take friends with you to do the same. Cautious optimism is no replacement for victory, and this election is still very close in the data we have.”