ROGER KIMBALL: State of Play, November 3, 2024.

Historians have often noted the tendency of generals to embark on a new war with assumptions more pertinent to the last one. This is what the enemy did last time; ergo, he’ll do something similar this time. That worked for us last time; ergo we should do it again. Fighting the last war is always a dangerous temptation.

The conduct of political warfare is not unlike the conduct of the wars that deploy armies rather than candidates, navies rather than the media, aircraft rather than pollsters. There is always the temptation to think that the assumptions and tactics of the last war are relevant to the current campaign.

This is especially the case, I believe, in the 2024 presidential race. The principals are the same: Donald Trump vs. what Vivek Ramaswamy has dubbed “the System.” The Dems changed out their primary avatar in July, shoehorning in Kamala Harris, where Joe Biden had been standing.  But that maneuver, though profoundly anti-democratic, was merely a cosmetic expedient.  The public face of the campaign was changed.  The organizing soul remained the same.

In essence, the Dems are waging the same campaign now that they waged in 2016, in 2020, and beyond.  Counting once again on their huge advantages in money (almost 3 to 1) and near total control of the media, they believe—or at least have acted as if they believe—that they can play the same game this time and win. They have not yet noticed—or at least have not yet effectively recalibrated their campaign to account for the fact—that many things “on the ground” have changed radically.

The Dems are fighting the last war.  Trump is not.

Well, we’ll find out on Tuesday. (Or maybe some time later in the week. Hopefully.)