ED MORRISSEY: CNN’s Harry Enten: All the Signs Are There.
RCP tracks eight betting markets now, not just the most well-known Polymarket. All of them have wide gaps favoring Trump, and all of their odds look very close together. SMarkets and Betfair give Trump the lowest rating at 61%, while Bwin and Pointsbet have the highest at 66%. Those putting skin in the game certainly see the same signs that Enten does.
Does that mean Trump has it in the bag? No, and that’s where the rest of the polls come into play. We may see a few new iterations over the next few days, but the numbers are really too close for comfort in the battleground states where this election is likely to be won. Harris now leads in the RCP aggregation for Michigan but only by 0.5 points, and that’s only because of outliers from Susquehanna and Quinnipiac. Trump leads all of the other battleground states tracked by RCP, but only with significant leads in Georgia and Arizona. There are historical reasons to believe that the polls may miss a significant amount of Trump support, but again, that’s something we know only after the election.
If this comes down to fundamentals and the current data, then Enten’s correct — we will have seen a Trump victory coming for a while. But we’re not there yet, so … don’t get cocky.