HMM: Shock Poll: Trump Is Close in New Mexico.

KA Consulting’s metrics claim a much closer race than the symphony of major pollsters, all of whom have Harris comfortably carrying the Southwestern state. KA Consulting polled 612 likely voters between October 16 and 18 and cited a recent NBC poll that found Trump’s position strengthening among Hispanics as evidence that Trump can pull off a shocking upset in the Sun Belt. Nearly half of the state’s population identifies as Hispanic, and the politics of a border state cannot be discounted during an election cycle where illegal immigration has dominated policy discussions.

The consulting firm also cites former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s strong polling numbers in the state before he dropped out of the race to support Trump as evidence that Trump could improve on his poor showings in 2016 and 2020.

New Mexico is a border state, too, which is why I mentioned it as a (very) outside chance for Trump in this week’s Wargaming the Electoral College.