MEANWHILE, OVER AT VODKAPUNDIT: Wargaming the Electoral College: The Spoiler That Wasn’t.

The Polymarket results are closely in line with various polls (more on those in a moment) supposedly showing that Harris had opened things up in the Southwest (Ariz. and Nev.), shored things up in the Upper Midwest (Mich. and Wisc.), and weakened Trump slightly in the South (Ga. and N.C.).

The net result is a 251-251 tie (including leaners) with Pennsylvania determining the winner. The numbers and the swing states haven’t changed that much but Harris has more routes to victory than Biden had, and Trump has fewer than he had against Biden.

About those polls…

Stephen Kruiser and I were having this conversation earlier today on our Five O’Clock Somewhere video live chat that pollsters seem to be oversampling Democrats as part of the Uniparty push to make Harris seem inevitable.

That said, she is likely doing better than Biden was doing against Trump, if only because she doesn’t look and sound like she has one foot in the grave. That alone was probably enough to win back some stragglers.

Enter one Robert F. Kennedy Jr as he (mostly) exits the race.

Much more at the link.