SEAN TRENDE: Kamala Harris’ Puzzling VP Pick.

If Minnesota – a state the GOP has not won in a presidential election since 1972 – is in play, the election is over. Might he have crossover appeal in Wisconsin? Maybe some, but the track record of vice-presidential picks trying to deliver states beyond where they reside is not terribly impressive. Frankly, Walz’s gubernatorial campaigns in Minnesota weren’t particularly strong either, and by 2022 his support had mostly dried up outside of urban areas (which in Minnesota is enough to win).

Walz doesn’t really help shore up a narrative about Harris – if anything, his own progressive bona fides (about which more later) – complicates what is probably the narrative Harris most needs to combat this cycle. Put differently, my most progressive friends are ecstatic about him, but if your nominee is pretty liberal, and you’re pretty liberal, and you find yourself excited about the vice-presidential pick as well, you should probably be concerned (and yes, I think the complementary view is also true for conservatives). Finally, if there is one problem Harris does not have, it is a restive base; the progressive wing of the party is still in full “swoon” mode.

What makes the choice more puzzling – the same is true of Vance – is that there were other candidates who probably check off any box Walz checks off, but who might contribute to the ticket in other ways.

Waltz serves as a signal — likely delivered by Barack Obama and/or Nancy Pelosi via Kamala Harris — that the far-left wing is in full control of the party now and that resistance is futile.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): MSNBC Data Guru Has Bad News for Democrats About Walz.

One explanation, of course, is that Dems don’t expect Kamala to win and that the better candidates said no. But don’t get cocky.