MEANWHILE, OVER AT VODKAPUNDIT [VIP]: Wargaming the Electoral College: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is.

Asked to lay their money down on “Who will win the presidency?” Polymarket bettors have given Trump a commanding lead. The current forecast, as I write these words at about 3:30 p.m. Eastern, gives Donald Trump a 56% chance of turning that POTUS 45 moniker into POTUS 47, Joe Biden just a 34% chance of keeping power, and RFK Jr pulling up the rear at 2%.

ASIDE: I’d also note that when prediction market bettors put their money down, they aren’t necessarily indicating a belief that there will be a free and fair election. They’re betting on the actual outcome, no matter how crooked it might be.

Those are the kinds of numbers I like to see, and the trendline has been moving in Trump’s favor. Whether that’s despite or because of his Deep State legal troubles is anyone’s guess. But my guess is “because of.”

Don’t pop the champagne cork just yet though because the devil is, as always, in the details.

Much more at the link.