JOHN LUCAS: What Incentives Does Israel Have to Agree to a Cease Fire?

The following is a guest post (originally on LinkedIn), by an Army officer with extensive combat experience in the Mideast and the Levant.

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What incentives does Israel have to cease counter-Hamas operations?

Nations, like individuals, historically (not always) operate off a series of incentives.

Net positive = do it

Net negative = avoid it

An easy concept to understand but not simple in practice.

There is no shortage in calls for Israel to implement a ceasefire with Hamas, despite the fact that the current conflict is a direct result of the October 7 Hamas attack where over 1100 Israelis were killed, many of them civilians.

To date Israel has resisted these calls, including those from the U.S., for an operational stand down.

But why?

As a student and practitioner of war I find myself asking, what incentives does Israel have to bow to international pressure?

This is NOT a political commentary, merely a thought experiment on incentives vs. disincentives.

Below are three reasons why Israel has no incentive to stop short of total victory:

Read the whole thing.

Related: Only Israel Wants To End the ‘Forever War.’ “Which brings us to the second point: This is already a forever war. And that forever war was declared by Israel’s enemies and is re-declared each time Israel offers to end it. Hamas’s raison d’etre, in fact, is forever war. You can find this out by doing such things as: asking them; reading their statements; reading their essential documents; watching their interviews; opening your eyes; etc.”