KRUISER IS NOT GETTING COCKY: Political Polls Are Lucy and Republican Voters Are Charlie Brown. “Back in the Tea Party days, I used to say that any Republican candidate polling lead under six percent wasn’t outside the margin of ACORN (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now). Now that early voting starts sometime around Super Bowl Sunday and Election Day is Election Seven or So Weeks, I’ve revised that. If a Republican isn’t up by at least eight points in a poll, he or she is not outside the Margin of Magic Mail Ballots.”