AS IT EVER WAS AND EVER SHALL BE: Slow Growth Is Ahead Unless Government Gets Out of the Way.

The U.S. growth rate held up in 2023, growing an annualized 3.3% during the fourth quarter despite dangerous crises in international affairs and weak foreign growth. But that news isn’t as good as it sounds. Government spending and the surge in national debt boosted the consumption side of U.S. gross domestic product, but business investment was muted. This portends weak growth: The Federal Reserve’s GDP projections in December called for only 1.4% growth in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

Whoever is inaugurated next January will face a perfect storm. The suspension of the debt limit expires Jan. 1, threatening another bad deal to avoid default and government shutdown. This year’s spending bills will likely be extended just long enough to kick the can into 2025, forcing a budget battle that only the swamp could enjoy. Tax rates will rise at the end of 2025 unless Congress and the president can agree to extend some of the expiring provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Equally daunting, progressive regulatory activism will also peak in 2025. Regulation without representation is now the rule, not the exception. President Biden’s export shutdown of liquefied natural gas will cost countless jobs, hurt global energy supplies, increase carbon emissions, and strengthen Vladimir Putin. Even if the Supreme Court reins in deference to regulatory agencies by limiting or overturning Chevron v. NRDC (1984), it will take years to untangle all the red tape.

Plus, so much of the growth we’ve had is the result of government incentives to invest in green energy boondoggles that will likely prove to be long-term drains on the productive parts of the economy.