STRATEGYPAGE’S LATEST INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Hamas Goes Rogue and Beyond : Jim Dunnigan’s “How To Make War” series examines Israel’s intelligence failure.

The lede for Friday the 13th:

The October 7th Hamas attack on Israel was an embarrassing failure of Israeli intelligence services. One reason for the surprise was that the planning did not involve a lot of foreign supporters. It was apparently just Iran, quietly increasing its supply of guided rockets, munitions and training personnel.

Ah but:

The Israeli military is one of the best in the world and not in need of the kind of aid sent to Ukraine. Israel needs more cooperation from its Arab neighbors and further Israeli economic cooperation depends on some Arab diplomatic and intelligence support. The Hamas attack was a major intelligence failure for Israel and the Arab neighbors realize that this was an Iranian intelligence victory. If Iran could do this again it would most likely be used against one of the Arab states that oppose expansion of Iranian influence in the region. Expending Hamas to accomplish this attack on Israel reminds Arab states that it could happen to them. Iran is a common enemy or threat to Israel, Arabs and Turks.

ASIDE: The meaning of “lede.”