CHANGE: Russia’s Dependence On China Is Deep And Wide — It May Also Be Irreversible.

One of the most notable aspects of Russia’s pivot to the East is its growing trade dependence on China. Chinese imports to Russia increased after 2008, culminating in China surpassing Germany as Russia’s leading supplier of goods.

In 2006, China’s share of Russian imports was a mere 9.4%, but by 2021, it had surged to a substantial 24.8%. Likewise, China’s share of Russian exports nearly tripled during the same period, making China Russia’s largest export destination by 2017.

Since the 2022 invasion, Russia has stopped publishing detailed customs statistics. Consequently, we must rely on various sources, including occasional reports from Russian officials, data from other countries and expert assessments. According to Iikki Korhonen, who leads the Institute for Transition Economies at the Bank of Finland, China’s portion of Russian imports “likely exceeded one-third and may have reached as high as 40% by the end of 2022.”

The level of dependence in foreign trade that Russia currently exhibits is typically associated with colonial or former colonial relationships, as well as “center-periphery” systems. In these systems, the central entity’s share of foreign trade with peripheral countries is akin to China’s role in Russia’s foreign economic activities.

Throughout recorded history, no partner of Russia — except for China post-2008 — has accounted for more than 16% of Russian imports. Similarly, in terms of Russian exports, no partner, except China since 2018, has surpassed a 15% share. “In terms of imports,” Iikki Korhonen argues, “Russia is now, if not the most dependent country on China, then second only to North Korea.”

Someone else noted a while back that China has two kinds of foreign relations: Trade partners and vassals. I’d add that Putin’s stupid war has moved Russia far along the road from the former to the latter.