INSTAPUNDIT READERS KNEW THIS AT THE TIME: Philadelphia Fed GDPplus Measure Sure Looks Like Recession Started in 2022 Q4. “In 100 percent of the cases, with no false signals, no misses, and no lead times more than two quarters, every time GDPplus had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the economy was in recession.”

Lots of data and charts at the link, if you’re into that kind of thing.