NOTHING GOOD: What Do Federal Tax Receipts and Total Receipts Suggest About Recession?

Total receipts have fallen three consecutive quarters. Tax receipts have fallen two straight quarters.

When tax receipts and total receipts both plunge, the economy is typically in recession. There were false signals in 1985 and 2003. There have also been recessions unconfirmed by plunging receipts so this is admittedly not the greatest of signals. But the tax data and the GDI data align.

Plus: “Of the 894,000 rise in employment in January, 810,000 was due to annual benchmark revisions. And the BLS does not say what months were revised, just poof, here you go. Again, we cannot, with strong confidence, suggest these reports portray an accurate picture of either jobs or employment.”

Washington can temporarily paper over a bad economy by printing money and spending it on do-nothing “infrastructure” and Green Nude Eel projects, but eventually the truth will out.