WELL, YES: The San Francisco real estate market is a ‘disaster,’ expert says.
The details in the first part of the article you’ve probably read elsewhere, including here at Instapundit and at VodkaPundit. But this next part is underreported:
The issues with commercial real estate extend beyond San Francisco, and according to the real estate expert, is “worse” than people think.
“It’s worse because a lot of the news isn’t out there yet,” Dolly said. “They’re trying to work with the owners of these properties to say, look, we’ll give you a short-term extension, let’s work this out. But the owners are saying, no, I can’t afford this. So unless you give me half an interest rate like I had before or we do something else, very creative, I can’t afford to keep this and continue to maintain it.”
Jenny added that many of the loans in commercial real estate are coming due within the next 18 months.
“We’re going to see how this plays out. And if you just sit on the sidelines, you can make 5.5% on a six-month T-bill… That’s being paid handsomely for doing absolutely nothing. So are you really going to invest in residential, commercial? You’re not. You’re going to be on the sidelines,” Jenny said.
Real estate is always a lagging indicator because the market is illiquid and the interest rates it relies on usually change slowly. On the plus side, I suppose: Shrinking real estate values are disinflationary!