STRATEGYPAGE RUSSIA UPDATE:Twilight of the Generals
As the Wagner revolt collapsed Prigozhin blinked first but:
…Putin was revealed as vulnerable because many of his senior generals regard the Ukraine invasion as a mistake that will tarnish Russia’s military reputation while also crippling the army and forcing budget cuts for the navy and air force in order to replace what was lost in Ukraine. The government is spending money it doesn’t have on the military operations in Ukraine. To make that happen, Russia has to diminish support for its navy and air force. The financial strain has been considerable. The Russian national budget increased by $80 billion (to $480 billion) since 2021, its defense budget has nearly doubled, going from $57 billion to $83 billion, and the budget for the national police and other internal security forces has gone from $47 billion to $77 billion. Before 2022 little of this was spent in Russian-occupied Ukraine, especially Donbas and Crimea. These two areas were illegally annexed and have growing problems with local security, not all caused by Ukrainians. Then came the invasion, which was taking over $10 billion a month out of the military budget. This defense spending growth was made possible by borrowed money. These loans had to be made at very high interest rates because the domestic and international financial industries agree that Russia is currently a bad credit risk from massive international sanctions and its military defeats in Ukraine.
The post discusses in detail Russia’s economic strains.