COLD WAR II: Why is China strengthening its military? It’s not all about war.

For some, the buildup alone provides reasons to fear conflict. Observers point to the rapid modernization as unambiguous evidence that China is preparing for war with the United States. In March 2021, Adm. Philip Davidson, then-head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could take military action against Taiwan by 2027. Adm. Michael Gilday, the chief of naval operations, added that he can’t rule out a Chinese attempt to invade as early as 2023.

Preparation for war is one possibility for the PLA’s buildup, but it is not the only one. The military’s modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA’s modernization.

A first major reason Chinese leaders seek a powerful military owes to basic security. History matters greatly here: Chinese leaders are acutely aware of the downfall of past dynasties when a weak military permitted adversaries to bring the empire to its knees. Chinese leaders routinely invoke past humiliations, such as the Opium Wars, to remind the population of the dangers that weakness might pose. Maintaining a strong deterrence, including through a large nuclear arsenal, is a fundamental reason that China seeks a powerful military.

Second, a growing China requires a more capable military to handle a growing range of missions, including the possibility of a conflict with Taiwan. China faces a difficult geography, with many hostile and suspicious powers along its periphery. Defense whitepapers highlight a multitude of threats, including the dangers of Taiwan separatism, disputes in the East and South China seas, border disputes, and the dangers of great power rivalry with the United States.

I’m not sure what the author means about the “dangers of Taiwan separatism.” The Republic of China on Taiwan already is separate and merely wants to stay that way — any danger comes from Communist China on the mainland.

That aside, a potential rival needs to be judged on their capabilities, not on their intent — which can change in a heartbeat.