HE’S HALF-EXPECTING AN EARTH-SHATTERING KABOOM: Elon Musk hints Starship rocket may explode on first orbital launch, predicting 50% chance of success and ‘guaranteeing excitement.’ “‘I think it’s got, I don’t know, hopefully about a 50% chance of reaching orbit,’ Musk said, adding that SpaceX is building multiple Starship rockets and that overall, there’s about an 80% chance one of them will reach orbit this year.”

The occasional rapid unscheduled disassembly followed by rapid iteration and improvement have taken SpaceX this far.