RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR: Ukraine’s Bakhmut may fall in days, says NATO chief, as Russia claims victory over eastern half of city.

But: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2023.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 7 that the hypothetical Russian capture of Bakhmut would provide Russian forces an “open road” to Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and other critical settlements in Donetsk Oblast.

ISW continues to assess, however, that Russian forces lack the capability to exploit the tactical capture of Bakhmut to generate operational effects, and will likely rapidly culminate following the capture of Bakhmut.
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Recent Russian advances within urban areas of Bakhmut demonstrate that Russian forces can secure limited tactical gains with infantry-led frontal assaults. Russian forces likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to exploit the roads (which are likely highly fortified) west of Bakhmut.

Kyiv’s promised winter offensive never materialized, likely due to weapons shortages and perhaps manpower, too. Moscow’s winter offensive has been a very long and expensive slog to capture a single town lacking any operational significance and, if ISW has it correct, is likely to fizzle out after accomplishing that little.