DON’T GET COCKY: Throw in the towel. Kari Lake up by 11 in Arizona.

There’s almost definitely something odd going on in the Grand Canyon State and recent surveys suggest that there may be more ticket-splitting than usual coming our way on November 8th. Just this week, the Arizona Senate race moved into a tie, with Real Clear Politics shifting the election from “leans Democrat” to a tossup. But at the very same time, the gubernatorial fight is shaping up to be a blowout unless there is a huge shift in momentum at the eleventh hour. A FOX 10 InsiderAdvantage poll conducted this week gives Republican Kari Lake an eleven-point lead over her debate-adverse Democratic rival, Katie Hobbs. To put it mildly, Democrats are going into full-blown panic mode and scrambling to prevent a potential red wave from turning into a crimson tsunami. (Fox 10 Phoenix)

A new FOX 10 InsiderAdvantage poll shows the race for Governor – widening a bit. But the race for U.S. Senate is turning into a dead heat.

With less than 2 weeks to go before the November election, Republican Kari Lake leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by 11 percentage points. Only about 2% of voters are undecided. Pollster Matt Towery believes that Hobbs’ reluctance to debate Lake may be a reason why the gap has widened in recent weeks. According to InsiderAdvantage, Lake is polling higher among older adults and Hispanics.

I don’t want to jinx anyone by calling any closely contested race a “done deal” with more than a week left to go and Lake clearly can’t afford to take her foot off the gas at this stage. But that same poll showed the race being far closer only a month ago and even favored Hobbs to win earlier in the summer. All of the momentum in the later stages of the battle has been in Lake’s corner.

If Lake is actually drawing those numbers, it could also propel Blake Masters across the finish line: Leftist Think Tank’s Poll: Blake Masters and Mark Kelly Are Tied.

As Glenn likes to say though about eschewing the cockiness, “Seriously, if you care about this election, you need to be out volunteering and donating. Commenting on the Internet doesn’t count.”